How it works

From a forecast to the right trade.

We turn a probabilistic read of where a stock is headed into the options structure that best expresses it — then size and manage it with discipline. Here is the process, and every kind of strategy we consider.

How a forecast becomes a decision

A disciplined pipeline runs on every name — and only the ideas that survive all of it are ever placed.

1

Read the market

For every name on the watchlist we take in its recent price action, volatility, and broader market context.

2

Forecast the path

Our forecasting engine projects not a single guess but a probability-weighted range of where the price could go — a cone of outcomes with a confidence.

3

Corroborate

Independent technical and fundamental signals must line up, and a panel of AI analysts reviews the setup and has to reach consensus before anything proceeds.

4

Match the structure

We compare the outlook — direction, and how big the expected move is versus what the options market is pricing — and select the strategy with the best risk/reward.

5

Size & manage

Every position is sized to a strict risk budget, then actively managed to profit targets and protective stops.

Probabilities, not promises. Every forecast is a range with a confidence, measured against what actually happens over time. The engine and analyst panel are a filter and a risk manager — they decide whether and how to act, never guarantee an outcome.

The strategies we consider

Rather than forcing one trade, the system scores a full catalog of options structures and picks the one that best fits the forecast and your risk setting. The charts show the profit & loss at expiration versus the stock price.

Profit zoneLoss zone— — break-even
Novice

Long Call

Buy a call — profit if the stock rises, risk limited to the premium.

Long Put

Buy a put — profit if the stock falls, risk limited to the premium.

Covered Call

Own stock and sell a call against it — collect premium, capping the upside.

Cash-Secured Put

Sell a put backed by cash — collect premium; if assigned, buy the stock at a discount.

Protective Put

Own stock and buy a put as insurance against a drop.

Intermediate

Bull Put Spread

Sell a put spread for a credit — keep it if the stock holds above the short strike.

Bear Call Spread

Sell a call spread for a credit — keep it if the stock stays below the short strike.

Bull Call Spread

Buy a call spread — a defined-risk bullish bet; profit and loss both capped.

Bear Put Spread

Buy a put spread — a defined-risk bearish bet; profit and loss both capped.

Iron Condor

Sell an OTM put spread and call spread — profit if the stock stays in a range.

Iron Butterfly

Sell an ATM straddle capped by wings — max profit if the stock pins the strike.

Long Call Butterfly

A low-cost bet the stock lands near a target, built with calls.

Long Put Butterfly

A low-cost bet the stock lands near a target, built with puts.

Calendar Call Spread

Sell a near-term call, buy a longer-dated one — profit from time decay near the strike.

Calendar Put Spread

Sell a near-term put, buy a longer-dated one — profit from time decay near the strike.

Diagonal Call Spread

A calendar with different strikes — a bullish lean with time decay working for you.

Diagonal Put Spread

A calendar with different strikes — a bearish lean with time decay working for you.

Collar

Own stock, buy a protective put, sell a call to pay for it — a fenced-in range.

Inverse Iron Condor

Buy the inner strikes, sell the wings — profit from a big breakout beyond the range.

Inverse Iron Butterfly

Buy an ATM straddle capped by short wings — a defined-risk big-move bet.

Short Put Butterfly

The inverse of a put butterfly — a credit that profits from a move away from center.

Short Call Butterfly

The inverse of a call butterfly — a credit that profits from a move away from center.

Advanced

Long Straddle

Buy a call and a put at the same strike — profit from a big move either way.

Long Strangle

Like a straddle but cheaper — it needs a bigger move to pay off.

Long Call Condor

A wider butterfly built with calls — profit over a range, defined risk.

Long Put Condor

A wider butterfly built with puts — profit over a range, defined risk.

Call Ratio Backspread

Sell one call, buy more above — bullish with unlimited upside if it runs.

Put Ratio Backspread

Sell one put, buy more below — bearish with a big payoff if it drops hard.

Call Broken-Wing Butterfly

A skewed call butterfly financed so one side carries little or no risk.

Put Broken-Wing Butterfly

A skewed put butterfly financed so one side carries little or no risk.

Jade Lizard

Sell a put and a call spread for a credit bigger than the spread — no upside risk.

Reverse Jade Lizard

Sell a call and a put spread for a credit bigger than the spread — no downside risk.

Short Call Condor

The inverse of a call condor — profits when the stock breaks out of a range.

Short Put Condor

The inverse of a put condor — profits when the stock breaks out of a range.

Inverse Call Broken-Wing

A flipped call broken-wing — a defined-risk big-move structure.

Inverse Put Broken-Wing

A flipped put broken-wing — a defined-risk big-move structure.

Bull Call Ladder

Buy a call, sell two higher — cheap-or-credit bullish, with upside tail risk.

Bear Call Ladder

Sell a call, buy two higher — profits if it stays low or rockets up.

Bull Put Ladder

Sell a put, buy two lower — profits if it stays up or drops hard.

Bear Put Ladder

Buy a put, sell two lower — bearish, with downside tail risk.

Covered Short Straddle

Own stock and sell a straddle against it — maximum premium, added assignment risk.

Covered Short Strangle

Own stock and sell an OTM strangle — premium income across a wider band.

Expert

Call Ratio Spread

Buy one call, sell more above — collect premium, with capped upside risk.

Put Ratio Spread

Buy one put, sell more below — collect premium, with bounded downside risk.

Short Put (Naked)

Sell an uncovered put — collect premium, obligated to buy if it falls.

Short Call (Naked)

Sell an uncovered call — collect premium, with open-ended risk if it rallies.

Short Straddle

Sell a call and a put at the same strike — profit if the stock barely moves.

Short Strangle

Sell an OTM call and put — a wider quiet-market premium play.

Long Synthetic Future

Long call + short put — mimics owning the stock, using options.

Short Synthetic Future

Long put + short call — mimics shorting the stock, using options.

Long Combo

A bullish synthetic — long call above, short put below.

Short Combo

A bearish synthetic — long put below, short call above.

Strip

A long straddle weighted to puts — profit from a move, more so on the downside.

Strap

A long straddle weighted to calls — profit from a move, more so on the upside.

Guts (Long)

A long strangle using in-the-money options — profit from a big move either way.

Double Diagonal

Calendars on both sides — collect time decay across a range.

Short Guts

Sell in-the-money call and put — rich premium, with open-ended risk both ways.

Synthetic Put

A put built synthetically — bearish, defined-risk downside exposure.

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Illustrative payoff diagrams for education only. Sir Trades A Lot provides market forecasts and analytics for informational and entertainment purposes and is not investment advice. © 2026 Sir Trades A Lot.