Strategy catalog & risk
Instead of hard-coding a few trades, the bot carries a full catalog of 43 option structures as declarative data, priced on a universal payoff / probability / expected-value engine. Every candidate carries two probability-of-profit numbers, expected value, max P/L, breakevens, and a margin estimate.
The two POP numbers
- Market-implied POP — from the option chain's IV and deltas (what the market is pricing).
- Model POP — the same structure re-scored with the forecast's tilt.
- Edge = model − market. A positive edge means the model thinks the structure is likelier to win than the chain implies.
Regime-aware selection
The selector matches the structure to the forecast on two axes: direction (long/short/neutral) and the volatility risk premium — is the expected move bigger or smaller than the chain is pricing? It scores candidates by quality × regime fit and hands the ranked list to the Roundtable, which walks #1 → #3 until one is approved.
The risk-profile slider (1–5)
Settings → Strategies. The slider is a ceiling on how risky a structure the bot may use; it only considers structures whose risk level is at or below your setting. Default is 3 (Balanced).
| Level | Name | Unlocks (examples) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Conservative | covered call, cash-secured put, protective put, collar |
| 2 | Moderate | long call/put, the four verticals, iron condor, iron butterfly |
| 3 | Balanced | butterflies, condors, calendars/diagonals, backspreads, straddle/strangle, broken-wings, strip/strap/guts |
| 4 | Aggressive | bounded naked: short put, jade lizard, synthetic long, put ratio spread |
| 5 | Speculative | unlimited naked: short call, short straddle/strangle, short synthetic, call ratio spread, reverse jade lizard |
Naked / undefined-risk trades require both the "Allow naked strategies" switch ON and risk profile ≥ 4. Below level 4, naked is off no matter what. Level-4 keys are bounded-loss; level-5 are unlimited-loss.
You can also enable/disable any individual structure with the per-strategy checkboxes. New structures added to the catalog default to ON.